Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
