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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

However the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

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