Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
